In Squaring Off, Zócalo invites authors into the public square to answer five questions about the essence of their books. For this round, we pose questions to Georgetown University professor and Council on Foreign Relations foreign policy analyst Charles A. Kupchan, author of No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn (Oxford University Press).
Kupchan argues that, as Western preeminence slips away, so will the founding principles of Western modernization-liberal democracy, industrial capitalism, and secular nationalism. But this doesn’t mean that China is going to become the new world leader. Instead, we’ll be living in “no one’s world.”
1) Why don’t you think the next global era will belong to China? It’s on track to surpass us in every respect.
China will surely strive for regional hegemony, but it is unlikely to become a global hegemon. It does not have-and is not cultivating-the global partners and strategic outposts needed to project power on a global basis. Its brand of autocratic capitalism cannot be a model for the rest of the world, since it depends on conditions that many countries lack-a competent leadership produced by meritocracy, a vast pool of labor, a first-rate rate industrial and transportation infrastructure, and a communitarian ethic. And, unlike Britain and the United States, which embraced a universalizing mission, China views its culture as being purely for the Chinese people-and for its Sinicized neighbors. Other states are outside the sphere of Chinese hegemony.
2) Why does a country have to be a model for the rest of the world in order to be a global hegemon? Isn’t superior military and economic power enough?
During the long era of formal empire, coercion was the primary instrument of imperial control, but, after World War II, the United States took the lead in dismantling and de-legitimating formal empire. Since then, U.S. influence has rested on the allure of the American commitment to liberal democracy and free markets, not just on its preponderant strength. Ideals and superior power worked hand-in-hand to underwrite Pax Americana.
In the 21st century, military power and superior economic performance will remain important, but legitimacy will also figure prominently. Power will be more equally distributed in the world, so alternative approaches to governance and commerce will compete in the marketplace of ideas.
In North America and Europe, liberal democracies will seek to maintain or restore effective governance and broadly shared prosperity. In China, Russia, and the Persian Gulf, an autocratic brand of capitalism will deliver impressive results and exert considerable staying power. In much of the Middle East, political Islam will reunite mosque and state. And in rising democracies like Brazil and India, which have large populations living in poverty, a left-wing populism is likely to carry the day. Different political and economic models will predominate in different regions, so the 21st century will ultimately prove to be no one’s world.
3) You write that “a global turn is under way” and that the West must “emerge from its doldrums and help manage that turn.” Why is this the West’s responsibility?
It is not necessarily the West’s “responsibility” to guide this transition, but it is in the West’s interests to do so. We know from history that transitions in the distribution of power lead to instability and, not infrequently, bloodshed. Someone needs to mind the store. The West has been providing international leadership for decades, while most emerging powers are just getting in the game when it comes to providing global leadership. The West should not seek to forcibly defend its notion of order, but should instead work with emerging powers to forge a consensus on new rules of the road. This will also help the West to preserve, and perhaps extend, key aspects of its version of modernity-such as open markets and political liberties.
4) Is there any reason to fear a vacuum of global leadership in the era of no one’s world?
Yes. In the United States, economic duress has stoked a level of political polarization that is denying the country effective governance. Europe’s debt crisis has been accompanied by a renationalization of political life that is threatening the collective governance the EU needs in order to thrive. Europe must revive its project of political integration if it is to have the collective wherewithal to help manage the global turn. And while the United States is inevitably headed into a period of strategic retrenchment mandated by defense cuts and the imperative of focusing on “nation-building” at home, America is still in search of a new equilibrium in the conduct of its statecraft-a more selective and judicious brand of foreign policy that enjoys the broad support of the American people.
Liberal democracies are known for their resilience and their capacity to self-correct. In this respect, the prospects are good for economic and political renewal on both sides of the Atlantic. Even as its material and ideological primacy wane, the West-as long as it recovers its economic and political solvency-should be able to take the lead in managing no one’s world.
5) How do you expect the West to “manage” no one’s world if it’s no longer dominant?
It won’t be easy. Global stability has benefited from the order that naturally comes with hierarchy. A more level playing field and a diminished American appetite for being the global cop means more cooks in the kitchen and more jockeying for position. Nonetheless, the United States and its traditional Western allies should follow these broad guidelines as they seek to shape the world that comes next:
• Recognize that the global distribution of power is changing, and get ahead of the curve. Prepare for no one’s world while the West still enjoys primacy.
• Realize that rising nations will not buy into the current order on offer from the West; be prepared to compromise and craft a new consensus on order.
• Ease off on insisting that liberal democracy is the only determinant of legitimacy. Widen the circle of legitimate stakeholders to include all states that govern responsibly-that is, those that seek to advance the interests and well-being of their citizens.
• Make institutions more representative by increasing the influence of states from the developing world. At the same time, devolve more responsibility to regional actors and organizations.
• Tame globalization. Use regulation and oversight to make sure that its benefits are more broadly shared both within and between nations.
Buy the book: Skylight Books, Powell’s, Amazon.
*Photo courtesy of susanne nybergh.